Volatility Futures & Options
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It is a retest, but will we break? If silver drops I will still continue to buy more. I've been calling this move for months.
The washout low rotation in the US stock market is indicative of a deleveraging event tied to global capital exiting traditional technology and small cap investments. I called this rotation back in Sept The question now becomes Silver is a difficult market, because it is easy to corner the underlying and easy to manipulate the futures. There are powerful forces at work. At the moment we are not mining as much silver as we are using, but the deficit is still being covered by reserves.
So the long term fundamental outlook is up, as reflected in the chart with a pitchfork, however we have I think it is very clear - If you want to invest in a precious metal - your choice should be silver. Silver is looking really good and have many bullish signals. This would be a long term investment! Silver is closing in on its resistance line which has hold multiple times since october.
Now, I would like to bring attention to a different product in a different market - perpetual swaps on BTC, that afaik were first introduced at Bitmex, and now trade on Deribit and Cryptofacilities. Perpetual swap is actually a spot-like instrument, that pays "dividend" if swap midprice is below index, and requires "dividend payment" is swap midprice is above index. These payments insure that swap midprice does not stray far off the index. Such instrument would be perfect for spot VIX instrument, however practically this seems impossible.
Current financial regulation landscape makes it very difficult to introduce new instruments, and back-office infrastructure is mostly not equipped to handle two-directional payments. The reason why crypto-exchanges succeeded with perpetual swaps is because their infrastructure was build from ground-up not 20 or 10 years ago, but within the last few years, without legacy requirements, on modern systems, with immediate trade and settlement capabilities.
Traditional exchanges simply cannot do that. So, I believe that VIX spot instrument is at an impasse at this time. Maybe this will change in the future, and investors will have an instrument that will be directly tied to the VIX index value. Ten days ago I wrote a post about max pain theory , and wrote down two ranges - first for immediate "weekly" expiration on Sep 21, and for the following expiration, Sep These ranges - and appear reasonable given recent market movement, but I would not read too much into them.
We'll wait and see what the market actually does. If you are a developer interested in listing your services in the EasyLanguage Specialist Directory please click here for more information.
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